Every January, I run a simple exercise in class. I ask people to predict the year ahead.
It feels easy… until you look back.
Take the past few years:
2020 delivered a global shutdown none of us had in our strategy documents.
2021 gave us double-digit inflation, last seen in the 1980s.
2022 brought Russia–Ukraine and an oil price shock from $60 to $120.
2023 accelerated AI into the mainstream.
2024 reshaped global politics in ways few had forecast.
2025 is not done, but a Friday-afternoon 100% tariff decision may be its defining headline.
If we are honest, almost none of this sat neatly in anyone’s playbook.
And that is the point.
The danger is not uncertainty itself, but rather the confidence with which we predict what comes next.
Forecasts feel precise. Reality is anything but.
The real strategic work lies elsewhere:
Building enterprises, institutions, and societies that can absorb surprise and adapt to change.
So here is the question I leave the group with, and I’ll leave it with you too:
What is one thing you believe will not change in the year ahead?
